COVID-19 & THE CITY: Future of Travel

Africa's 1st COVID-19 vaccine trial starting

By Dr Rajita Chaudhuri

A city is very often described by its traffic. A neighbourhood by the cars parked on the curbs. It’s all going to change or probably has already changed to a large extent. A lot of European cities are opening up this month after the lockdown and the one thing they have in common is they all want fewer cars on the streets. Here’s the reason.

HAS COVID KILLED CARS?

As cities open up their schools and offices, this time they want to make no mistake. Social distancing will remain mandatory for the coming months making public transport ineffective in coping with the demand. The number of people that can be accommodated in a metro or bus would reduce by at least 30% if passengers are to stay a meter apart from each other. That would leave people with little choice but to take out their private cars. If everyone did that then not just would there be humongous traffic jams but the pollution levels which fell so drastically would be back again increasing the chances of a more devastating second wave of the disease. It has been proved that pollution levels increase the death risk from Covid-19.

Nations worldwide are grappling with ways to change urban transport so that both congestion and pollution are under control. Cars have become synonymous with both.

THE SOLUTION- CYCLES

From Milan to Paris, Belgium to Berlin every city is working towards increasing the length and breadth of its cycle lanes. They are doing this by making car lanes narrower and cycle lanes wider. Most cities have started adding new cycle tracks apart from re-allocating space on their major roads for cycling and walking- the most effective way to maintain social distancing. Cycle training, cycle repair cycle parking are all being taken care of by the government in cities like Paris to tempt people to leave their cars home. France plans to introduce a $40 million scheme to get more people cycling. To get people safely out of the lockdown the cycle will play a key role. Research has shown that 60% of trips made in France in normal times is less than 5 kilometres.

International tourism could decline by 60-80 per cent in 2020: UN
International tourism could decline by 60-80 per cent in 2020: UN

The transport minister of Brussels region Elke Van den Brandt says two-thirds of trips that people make within Brussels are less than three miles. They are planning to finish 25 miles of new bike lanes in Brussels to help their 1.2 million residents come out successfully from the lockdown. Pollution and coronavirus are a dangerous cocktail and Anne Hidalgo the mayor of Paris is determined to not let cars dominate her city and cultivate other modes of transport. She plans to make Paris a ’15-minute city’. This was one of the most important messages from her re-election manifesto -way before the corona crisis hit us. Residents should have all their needs met -be it work or shopping or hospitals or parks- within 15 minutes from their doorstep. She is changing the city and the quality of life of its residents. Europe has been planning a gradual retreat of the car for quite sometime now.

According to an article in August 2019, in The Economist the continent has been moving towards greener ways of transportation. Cycle paths and pedestrian streets have been growing, so have the number of car-free days.

A report by the European Commission titled ‘Cycling : the way ahead for towns and cities’ focused on improving air quality, urged the elected decision makers to encourage the use of cycles as a regular mode of transport. It’s ironical that the car is the fastest mode of transport for an individual and yet too many cars can bring a whole city to a standstill. A reduction in car usage has become a necessity today more than ever before.

CARS AS STATUS SYMBOLS

Uber has already made buying a car not mandatory for the new kids on the block. The need to own a car is not so strong among the millennial. The car as a status symbol has lost its place of pride to the smartphones. The attitude towards cars has changed and will continue to change, especially now as we all re-think our travel plans.

FUTURE OF TRAVEL

Travel changed post 9/11.

This time the pandemic has changed our whole outlook towards travel and also the fortunes of many in this business. With demand for air travel down by 95% one doubts how much of this demand will come back once the COVID-19 threat subsides. If the share market is any indicator about the future growth prospects of an industry then one must keep in mind this ‘small’ development.

Warren Buffet one of the richest men on earth and the keenest and sharpest share market player had sold all his shares in airlines. He used to have approximately a 10% stake in 4 airlines, Delta, Southwest, American and United Airlines. He has sold every single share. Richard Branson has shut down Virgin Australia. Airports and airlines will change and so will the decision to travel.

Until confidence is restored in travel people will avoid flights, long distance travel and even hotels. How we travel, why we travel, where we travel will be very different tomorrow. Every crisis is also an opportunity for something new to flourish.

Let’s wait and see the disruptions and the disruptors who will take advantage of this situation and give us a new model, a new idea. Till them stay home, stay safe, and may I add – clean up your old cycle.

 

(Author, Dr Rajita Chaudhuri, is President at Great Indian Dream Foundation -GIDF, and is experienced Editorial Director with a demonstrated history of working in the writing and editing industry. She is skilled in Entrepreneurship, Team Building, Public Speaking, Curriculum Development, and Market Research)